Further growth ahead for MIA

Last week Malta International Airport plc published its customary announcement at the start of the year confirming the traffic results for the previous 12-month period and providing traffic and financial guidance for the current calendar year.

Given the reports across social media on 30th December that the airport operator had just achieved the milestone of 10 million passengers in 2025, the confirmation that total passenger movements amounted to 10.06 million last year was not of major relevance to the investing community.

However, the presentation sent to the press with the overall traffic statistics for last year contain important elements which are noteworthy when analysing the business model and growth trajectory of the airport operator.

2025 was another record year for MIA with growth of 12.3 per cent in passenger volumes to 10.06 million compared to the previous record of 8.96 million passenger movements registered in 2024. Seat capacity increased by just over 13 per cent from the level in 2024 and the seat load factor decreased slightly to 85.4 per cent which is still a very strong indicator.

MIA continued to diversify its connectivity last year with the airport being connected to 111 airports across 37 markets. The airport was served by 34 airlines throughout the year, with four new airlines being added in 2025.

The traffic results confirmed the dominance of Ryanair with a market share of 51 per cent followed by KM Malta Airlines (previously Air Malta) at 17.3 per cent. While Ryanair achieved growth of 14 per cent in passenger movements to 5.12 million, KM Malta Airlines suffered a contraction of 8 per cent to 1.7 million. Low-cost airlines accounted for circa 62.5 per cent of the passenger traffic recorded in 2025.

The UK and Italy were again the top markets with a market share of 20 per cent each followed by Poland at 9 per cent after an increase in 49 per cent in passenger movements to 860,000. Essentially, these three markets account for half of the passenger movements through the air terminal.

The announcement and presentation issued last week noted that the level of passengers for the month of December amounted to a monthly record of 709,352 passengers (+19.9 per cent compared to December 2024). Consequently, monthly passenger movements throughout 2025 exceeded those in 2024 and more importantly, the December growth rate of 19.9 per cent was also the highest monthly growth rate registered in 2025. This augurs well for the first three months of 2026 until the summer schedule commences in April.

Moreover, an important observation is that the airport registered passenger growth of 16 per cent during the shoulder winter months (January–March and October–December), while growth in the core summer period amounted to 11 per cent. In absolute terms, the airport recorded an additional 580,000 movements during the shoulder period which surpasses the growth of 520,000 passenger movements registered during the summer period.

This is a key element in the overall strategy of all stakeholders across the travel industry as the ultimate aim is to address the seasonality factor by improving accessibility across key strategic markets. In fact, MIA confirmed that the growth being envisaged in 2026 is also as a result of the introduction of new routes across Eastern and Northern Europe, Scandinavia as well as the launch of the direct flights to New York.

In fact, the company announced last week that it expects to register total passenger movements of 10.5 million in 2026 representing growth of 4.4 per cent compared to the 2025 figure of 10.06 million.

While MIA has yet to publish its annual financial statements for 2025, it is natural to expect the company to confirm another record financial performance for 2025 once the results are released to the market by the end of February in view of the fact that the level of passenger movements is a key determinant to revenue and profitability levels.

The last financial forecast by MIA for 2025 was in August 2025 when it upgraded its earlier guidance for the year to 9.7 million passengers with revenue anticipated at €151 million, EBITDA of €93 million and net profit of €49 million.

The 2025 annual financial statements due to be published in the weeks ahead should reveal improvements all across these figures given the achievement of just over 10 million passengers.

Meanwhile, based on the 2026 traffic guidance of 10.5 million passengers, the company also provided its financial guidance for the current year. MIA expects revenue of €162 million in 2026 which is 7.3 per cent greater than the August 2025 forecast of €151 million. Likewise, EBITDA is expected to rise to €98 million which is 5.3 per cent greater than the August 2025 forecast of €93 million while the anticipated net profit of €51 million in 2026 is 4.1 per cent greater than the August 2025 forecast of €49 million.

MIA also announced that capital expenditure during 2026 is expected to amount to €90 million as it continues making headway in its €345 million investment plan for the period 2025-2029 as announced in February 2025. Following the first phase of the Terminal Expansion involving a 1,550 sqm westward expansion which was completed in the first half of 2025, the focus in 2026 will be mainly towards the construction of Sky Parks 2 and the second phase of the Terminal Expansion, involving an eastward expansion which commenced towards the end of 2025.

The growth trajectory of the airport over recent years has been nothing short of extraordinary. A comparison of some key performance indicators to the pre-COVID levels provides a clear indication of the extent of the growth. Assuming the airport will succeed in achieving the planned growth to 10.5 million passengers this year, it would represent an upturn of 44 per cent compared to the passenger movements of 7.3 million in 2019. Meanwhile, the impact on the company’s financial performance was even stronger. The expected revenue of €162 million would be 62 per cent above the 2019 figure of €100 million, with EBITDA growing by 55 per cent and net profit up by 50 per cent from the 2019 levels.

This is undoubtedly very positive news for the company’s shareholders. Unfortunately, this is mostly overlooked by many investors who remain disgruntled at the fact that the company’s share price has rarely surpassed the €6.00 level over the past two years. Hopefully, the timing on the improvement in the company’s cash flow should soon become clearer to the market once the company provides more details on the expected completion of the various phases of the ongoing major investment programme. This should eventually translate into much more meaningful dividend payments to shareholders.

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