Extreme heat set to leave 2.5% dent in Malta’s GDP by mid-century

Malta is among the European countries projected to suffer the highest economic losses from heatwaves in the coming decades, according to new research highlighted by Euronews.

The country is set to see GDP impacts from extreme heat exceeding -2.5 per cent by the 2055–2064 period if no further climate adaptation or mitigation measures are taken.

The warning comes as Europe continues to warm at twice the global average rate, with 2023 recorded as the warmest year on record both globally and across the continent. Researchers say that without decisive action, the effects of extreme heat on labour productivity and economic output will grow significantly.

Malta among most exposed countries in Europe

Data shared with Euronews from a study by David García-León and colleagues, published in Nature Communications, reveals that Malta, along with Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Spain, and Romania, faces the most severe projected GDP losses linked to extreme heat.

In contrast, countries in northern Europe such as the UK, Ireland, and Denmark are expected to experience less severe economic damage, with projections generally staying below -0.5 per cent even under the worst-case scenarios.

The study analysed the economic impact of heatwaves during four exceptionally hot years – 2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018 – and compared them to historical data from 1981 to 2010. It found that damages from these heatwaves already amounted to between 0.3 per cent and 0.5 per cent of Europe’s GDP, significantly higher than the historical average of 0.2 per cent.

Looking ahead, average losses from heatwaves are forecasted to rise sharply:

• 0.77 per cent of GDP by 2035–2045
• 0.96 per cent by 2045–2055
• Beyond 1.14 per cent by the 2060s

Southern European countries like Malta are at the highest risk, largely due to their already warmer climates and growing exposure to extreme heat events.

Productivity also at risk

Separate research published in 2024 by the OECD also finds that rising temperatures are significantly cutting into labour productivity, particularly in southern Europe. Although Malta was not individually ranked in the productivity figures, nearby countries such as Spain and Italy showed some of the steepest drops.

OECD simulations indicate that with a 2°C increase in temperature – a likely scenario under current climate trajectories – productivity losses in southern Europe could reach as high as 0.8 per cent in Spain and 0.5 per cent in Italy. By comparison, northern countries like Finland and Denmark are expected to face far smaller declines.

Adaptation needed urgently

Experts are urging governments to take stronger action on both climate mitigation and adaptation. “Previous measures are no longer sufficient,” said Mr García-León, who is also a science adviser to Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture. “Occupational health policies must be complemented by broader public policies that support local adaptation planning, such as urban design that mitigates the heat island effect.”

Adaptation examples already seen in parts of Europe include altering working hours during summer, mandatory breaks for outdoor workers, and early warning systems for extreme heat. But these practices will need to be expanded and localised, especially in high-risk countries like Malta.