Commercial aircraft to number 40,000 by 2030

According to research conducted by strategic consultancy firm Oliver Wyman, the global fleet of commercial aircraft is expected to reach 40,000 by 2030.

The commercial fleet across the globe currently consists of just under 28,000 aircraft.

According to Oliver Wyman, however, 21,000 new commercial aircraft will be delivered in the next decade, half of which will be replacements for ageing aircraft.

The consultancy firm believes that the high level of replacement reflects an ageing fleet, with around 9 per cent of current in-service aircraft being over 25 years old. 

As reported by consultancy.eu, Oliver Wyman expects that passenger planes will make up over 36,000 of the nearly 40,000 planes by 2030. 

However, despite the growth in the passenger fleet, Oliver Wyman expects passenger demand to decline. According to International Air Transport Association forecasts, the distance travelled by passengers will half by 2030. 

The cargo fleet, on the other hand, will grow faster over the next decade than it did in the previous one, reflecting the rapid increase in e-commerce. 

China will remain as the driver of fleet growth, with a major net increase in fleet size over the period 2020-2030. North America will follow, with the second-highest net fleet size growth, whereas Western Europe will have a relatively low net fleet increase, largely due to the high number of aircraft it is due to retire in the next decade.

The report also predicts that by 2030, China will overtake the market share of Western Europe.