Malta’s effective population peaks at 628,000 during August 2023

Malta’s effective population during 2023 reached an August peak of 628,058 and a low of 562,591 in December, according to a new National Statistics Office (NSO) report analysing tourism intensity.

The new ‘effective population’ metric is meant to help analysts and policymakers better understand the impact of tourism across different regions and time periods. by calculating the number of tourist nights per 100 residents per day, offering a nuanced view of how tourism affects local populations.

In Valletta, for instance, where the resident population has been steadily declining for years, the rise in tourists was the primary factor behind a 35.7 per cent increase in its effective population.

Understanding tourism intensity

Tourism intensity is determined by dividing the total number of tourist nights by the number of days in a given period, then adjusting this figure relative to the local resident population.

For instance, if a locality with 5,000 residents records 3,500 tourist nights in January, the daily average of tourists is approximately 113. Subtracting any outbound tourist nights by residents provides a net figure, which is then scaled per 100 residents. In this example, the tourism intensity would be 1.5, indicating that for every 100 residents, there are 1.5 tourists present daily.

The report presents data on tourism intensity, tourism density, tourist population, mid-year population, and effective population at the country, district, and locality levels.

In Malta, the mid-year population for 2023 was recorded at 552,734, with an additional 40,012 tourists, resulting in an effective population of 592,746. This means that 6.8 per cent of Malta’s population at that time was made up of tourists.

A growth in Malta’s effective population

From 2016 to 2023, the resident population grew by 21.8 per cent, while the tourist population saw an even larger increase of 27.6 per cent, excluding the dip in 2020 due to COVID-19. Overall, the effective population increased by 107,506 during this period, with tourists accounting for 8,651 of that growth.

At the district level, the Northern Harbour district consistently had the highest effective population, followed by the Northern district. However, when it comes to the proportion of tourists, the Northern district led with 11.7 per cent in 2023, narrowly surpassing the Northern Harbour’s 10.9 per cent. Seasonality also played a significant role in population fluctuations, with the effective population ranging from 562,591 in December to a peak of 628,058 in August.

A rise in tourism intensity

Between 2016 and 2023, Malta experienced a rise in tourism intensity, from 6.9 to 7.2, reflecting an increase in tourists per 100 residents due to growth in both resident and tourist populations. At the district level, the Northern and Northern Harbour districts had the highest tourism intensities, though the gap between them narrowed over time.

This shift was driven by stronger resident growth in the Northern district and a notable rise in tourists in the Northern Harbour district. At the locality level, St Julian’s stood out with the highest tourism intensity in August 2023 (128.8), meaning tourists outnumbered residents during the peak month, even though intensity declined since 2016. St Paul’s Bay also saw a drop in tourism intensity, largely due to a sharp increase in its resident population and a slight drop in tourists.

In contrast, Valletta experienced a spike in tourism intensity, with a substantial 175 per cent rise in tourist numbers and a small decline in residents, making tourism the main driver behind its 35.7 per cent increase in effective population.

Tourism density rebounds in 2023

Between 2016 and 2019, Malta’s tourism density rose steadily, peaking at 128 tourists per square kilometre before plummeting to 31 in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2023, tourism density nearly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, reaching 127 tourists per square kilometre, contributing to an effective population density of 1,882 persons per square kilometre – comprising 1,755 residents and 127 tourists.

At the district level, the Northern Harbour district consistently reported the highest densities for both resident and effective populations, followed by the Southern Harbour and Southeastern districts.

During the peak tourism month of August 2023, St Julian’s recorded the highest tourism density among the top six localities (10,825 per km²), followed by Sliema and Gzira. However, when combining residents and tourists, Sliema led with a staggering 26,140 persons per km², followed by St Julian’s (19,227) and Gzira (17,174).

Notably, from 2016 to 2023, Sliema consistently held the top spot for both resident and effective population density, with Gzira ranking second in resident density but only briefly matching that position for effective density in 2020, as St Julian’s typically occupied the second spot in other years.

Tourism intensity serves as a crucial indicator for sustainable tourism, as it reflects the ratio of tourists to residents. In Malta’s case, it proves particularly valuable for understanding not only the overall composition of the effective population but also how this balance shifts during peak tourism periods and in the most visited localities.